Your Vote Doesn't Matter
Not an insult. Arithmetic. This site computes, from real election results, the probability that one person's vote decides the presidency and the other races on their ballot. In the most competitive state, Nevada, that probability is about 1 in 2,131,055. In South Carolina it is about 1 in 26,644,207,035. The interactive version of this page needs JavaScript; the complete text, model, and validation are at /llms-full.txt, the methodology at /methodology, and the data as JSON at https://api.yourvotedoesntmatter.com/api/v1/states.
| State | Electoral votes | Chance your vote decides the presidency |
|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 6 | 1 in 2,131,055 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 1 in 2,591,619 |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | 1 in 2,696,870 |
| Georgia | 16 | 1 in 2,739,409 |
| North Carolina | 16 | 1 in 3,163,773 |
| Michigan | 15 | 1 in 3,973,446 |
| Arizona | 11 | 1 in 4,066,097 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 1 in 4,173,485 |
| Maine | 4 | 1 in 7,530,219 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 1 in 7,921,984 |
| Alaska | 3 | 1 in 12,310,412 |
| Iowa | 6 | 1 in 23,207,793 |
| Texas | 40 | 1 in 25,829,930 |
| Virginia | 13 | 1 in 34,510,468 |
| Florida | 30 | 1 in 36,485,717 |
| Colorado | 10 | 1 in 39,904,244 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 1 in 44,004,583 |
| Utah | 6 | 1 in 47,211,816 |
| Ohio | 17 | 1 in 53,730,356 |
| New Jersey | 14 | 1 in 89,433,221 |
| Delaware | 3 | 1 in 284,726,562 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 1 in 302,087,522 |
| Montana | 4 | 1 in 1,109,935,074 |
| Indiana | 11 | 1 in 1,386,676,034 |
| Missouri | 10 | 1 in 1,436,684,464 |
| Kansas | 6 | 1 in 1,454,595,139 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 1 in 2,706,710,280 |
| Illinois | 19 | 1 in 6,431,148,327 |
| Oregon | 8 | 1 in 12,088,134,941 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1 in 14,128,699,648 |
| South Carolina | 9 | 1 in 26,644,207,035 |
| New York | 28 | 1 in 38,825,916,979 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 1 in 414,813,071,871 |
| California | 54 | 1 in 712,263,318,870 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 1 in 883,995,166,949 |
| North Dakota | 3 | less than 1 in a trillion |
| Washington | 12 | less than 1 in a trillion |
| Massachusetts | 11 | less than 1 in a trillion |
| Louisiana | 8 | less than 1 in a trillion |
| West Virginia | 4 | less than 1 in a trillion |
| Kentucky | 8 | less than 1 in a trillion |
| Vermont | 3 | less than 1 in a trillion |
| Tennessee | 11 | less than 1 in a trillion |
| Maryland | 10 | less than 1 in a trillion |
| Alabama | 9 | less than 1 in a trillion |
| Hawaii | 4 | less than 1 in a trillion |
| Arkansas | 6 | less than 1 in a trillion |
| Idaho | 4 | less than 1 in a trillion |
| Wyoming | 3 | less than 1 in a trillion |
| District of Columbia | 3 | less than 1 in a trillion |
| Oklahoma | 7 | less than 1 in a trillion |